Deep Dive
Trump expects Iranian response on peace terms
Trump told reporters he anticipated receiving Iran's response on a proposed peace deal by evening, though the letter hadn't arrived as of early morning. The potential agreement would end hostilities and address Iran's nuclear program, following defensive US strikes in the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian ships attacked American forces. Retired Army Colonel Joe Puchino acknowledged the response might come later in the US morning or afternoon, but flagged a critical problem: Iran will deploy delay tactics no matter what they submit.
Fractured Iranian leadership complicates negotiations
Puchino detailed how Iran's decision-making is splintered across the parliament, the IRGC military command, and the clergy — with the Ayatollah in hiding and communicating only through written notes. While parliament speaker Gibb and foreign minister Arachi appear willing to negotiate in good faith potentially in Islamabad, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahiti and other hardliners are blocking progress. The fragmentation means no single authority can commit to a deal, and communicating with leadership who avoid electronic devices that can be tracked adds months to any timeline.
US airstrikes eliminated Iran's deal-makers
Puchino explained that early February strikes killed an entire generation of Iranian leaders who understood the economic catastrophe of prolonged war. Hardliners who survived the brutal Iran-Iraq War and remember its UN-brokered peace as humiliating now control positions of power. These veterans view control of the Strait of Hormuz as critical leverage over the US, Europe, and the global economy — making them unwilling to accept any deal that reopens shipping lanes or eases their position.
Iran's stalling strategy prioritizes avoiding further strikes
Beyond leadership chaos and ideological resistance, Iran is pursuing its traditional tactic of delay to simply outlast American pressure and prevent additional military action. Puchino stressed that negotiations with Iran are notoriously difficult, combining fragmented authority, hardline ideology shaped by historical trauma, and a deliberate strategy of waiting things out. The combination creates a fundamentally slow process where even basic communication is hampered and Iran has structural incentives to drag talks into the summer.