Deep Dive
The Sentiment Collapse
CNN's data analyst Harry Anon walks through the seismic shift in how Canadians view the United States over the past 18 months. In 2023, 73% of Canadians saw the US as an ally or friend. That number has inverted to just 22% today — a 51-point swing Anon describes as unprecedented. The change tracks almost perfectly with Trump's return to office. Confidence in the US president specifically has fallen even harder: from 52% under Biden to just 20% now, with 79% expressing no confidence. This isn't abstract polling noise — it represents a fundamental rupture in a relationship that had been stable for decades.
The Asymmetrical Love Affair
The data reveals something uncomfortable: Americans still like Canadians far more than Canadians like Americans. The net favorability gap shows Americans favoring Canada by 65 points, while Canadians now view America at minus 33 points — nearly a 90-point spread that used to be far closer. Anon calls it a bizarro Harry Houdini: the alliance hasn't vanished, but it's become one-sided. Trump's framing at the White House — that Canada has been tough on the US for years and that their leadership needs America to survive — only seems to harden Canadian resolve. The timing compounds the wound: Trump met Mark Carney at the World Cup final in a seemingly cordial moment, only to announce 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods days later.
Carney's Narrow Path and Trade Realities
Nick Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, explains that Carney's measured approach to negotiations aligns with Canadian public sentiment — people want a deal but not a bad one. Provincial leaders are counseling him with the phrase better no deal than a bad deal. Carney benefits from the fact that Canadians blame Trump for the turmoil, not their own prime minister. However, the structural reality is brutal: more than 70% of Canadian trade goes to the US, making diversification rhetoric essentially theatrical. Even if Carney successfully shifts trade relationships with Europe and Asia, the math shows he'd be lucky to reduce US dependency from 70% to 60%. Nanos compares the task to boiling the ocean. At the end of the day, the United States will remain Canada's dominant trading partner regardless of what happens with Europe or Asia.
Fatigue and Runway
After 18 months of tariff threats over fentanyl, wildfires, hockey sticks, and trade imbalances, one might expect Canadian fatigue. Nanos suggests there isn't any yet, partly because Canadians understand the relationship's importance and partly because they view fighting as part of the game — like penalties in hockey, you serve time and return. But Nanos flags a critical variable: how long Carney's political runway lasts. Canadian consumer confidence is flat, economic uncertainty is rising, and anxiety about the future is growing. For now, Canadians are firmly directing their anger at the White House rather than at their prime minister, viewing him as someone trying to navigate a world fundamentally different than it was three or four years ago. Whether that patience holds depends entirely on how the negotiations unfold.