Deep Dive
Gold and silver deep in structural correction
The presenter returns from a two-week break to find gold and silver still grinding through their expected long-term consolidations. Gold broke above $5,000 early this year but has now spent nine months correcting, sitting between $4,000 and $4,300. The key insight isn't just price — it's time. The distance from the three-year moving average became historically stretched, and the 1970s comparable corrections took 1-2 years to reset. We're only nine months in, so there's no sign the correction is definitely over. Gold just got rejected at the 12-month moving average, making further downside to the $3,700 Fibonacci level or even lower (toward $3,000) entirely plausible. For longer-term investors willing to stomach drops to $3,000-$3,500, target boxes sit at $7,000-$8,000 near-term and $12,000-$13,000 by the mid-2030s. Silver tells a similar story: the bulk of its price correction from $121 to $64 is likely complete, but time is still playing out. There's no low-risk, high-reward entry for short-term traders right now.
Capital rotation ratios show early signs of turning
Gold versus the S&P continues to grind sideways, and gold versus NASDAQ has broken out above a downtrending resistance line but is now consolidating with expanding volatility. The technical setup remains constructive but not yet dominant — we're resting at important support and don't want to see it fall back below the Ichimoku cloud. Equal-weighted S&P versus gold bounced off a support zone and moved strongly upside, but now faces resistance from an inverted cup pattern and the three-year moving average. Silver versus NASDAQ, however, is cleaner: it's already above the Ichimoku cloud, three-year moving average, and broken through resistance lines — much like the 2000s setup. Silver junior miners SILJ has made more than halfway progress toward a target of 78, with a stop loss way down at 8.90, though it's extremely volatile. The key message: capital rotation is building, but it's not yet in full swing. Individual charts like silver versus NASDAQ are leading; others like gold versus the S&P are still consolidating.
Mining stocks trapped waiting for metal breakouts
GDX (gold miners) broke above resistance and ran up to 105, but the presenter didn't add aggressively because the metals themselves haven't confirmed the correction is over. Since August, GDX has sunk back toward its former resistance zone, which is now acting as support. The critical signal would be a monthly close convincingly above the double red lines on the chart — until that happens, GDX remains in a whipsaw zone. XAU (Philadelphia precious metals mining index) faces similar resistance lines. SIL (silver miners ETF) is still consolidating on the weekly chart with distance-from-moving-average resetting, so the weight of evidence isn't yet compelling. However, SILJ (silver junior miners) versus the S&P has broken out much more clearly, suggesting that versus stock markets, both silver and silver junior miners are the play. ASA (precious metals mining index) versus gold has hit resistance and needs to break through the double red lines before we can say miners are entering a period where they'll massively outperform the metal. Until that happens, the chart shows no further bullish signal. The takeaway: miners are following the metals, not leading them. No breakout in the metals, no aggressive position in the miners.
Copper leading the commodity charge with clean technicals
Copper futures at $6.76 have held their support level on the weekly chart and are grinding upward toward an $8 target already in the SRS portfolio. The presenter sees a potential wedge formation that, if it breaks to the upside, could be very energetic and dramatic. Distance from moving average is also compressing, which could fuel the next move. The copper miners ETF COPEX is expected to see further weakness before a stronger breakout — offering a potential trade setup with roughly 3:1 reward to risk. The US Copper Index Fund is looking very bullish on both weekly and monthly charts following its breakout. The real power move comes from copper versus the S&P: it's already above the four-year moving average and breaking through the Ichimoku cloud and resistance lines would give high confidence that copper is about to accelerate very strongly. Copper miners versus the S&P have already seen the big breakout above moving averages, cloud, and an 11-year resistance line dating back to 2015, and are now consolidating in a bullish rectangular box. Copper miners versus gold have hit resistance and need a resolution. Gold versus copper is resting on important support, and if it breaks below, copper is highly likely to have another impulsive move up. Copper versus silver is resuming its uptrend after being highlighted for a long time. The message is clear: copper is the strongest commodity story and should be a priority for positioning.
Treasury bond market broken, real yields rising despite gold bull era
The 20+ year Treasury bond ETF has broken down below multi-decade support, with that yellow-circle support zone showing the bond market is effectively broken. The 10-year yield continues its relentless march upward — the presenter has been predicting this for years despite narratives insisting it's impossible. The setup mirrors the 1960s-70s, and if the 10-year breaks above 5.3%, the target becomes 7% initially, possibly 7-8%. The market-implied 10-year real yield is also breaking out and moving up strongly, which typically puts downward pressure on precious metals. However, the presenter notes that even within a gold bull era, real yields can rise — it happened in the 1970s as well. The tailwind for precious metals comes during periods when real yields fall substantially, which we saw throughout 2024-2025 and into early 2026. Now that real yields are rising, metals are correcting. The high-yield bond ETF (junk bonds) is plunging, suggesting credit stress may be building. This combination — broken bond market, soaring real yields, and rising nominal yields — creates a headwind for commodities and a potential warning sign for financial stability within the next 12 months.
Stock markets in meltup, technicals ignore rising rates and red flags
The S&P 500 on the weekly chart remains perfectly bullish, moving through multiple resistance levels and staying well above critical support. The presenter notes it doesn't seem to care about rising bond yields or the other red flags flashing everywhere — chart is king. As long as key support levels hold, the technical setup demands an energetic upside move. The S&P equal-weighted index is still grinding upside, and volatility is down to multi-month lows. Nvidia's chart hasn't broken support yet, so the bullish case remains intact. NASDAQ versus the S&P is bouncing on support, which is good for markets — alarm bells would only ring if that support breaks. The NASDAQ 100 is fine, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average looks solid with some consolidation around a support-resistance zone. The Russell 2000 has pulled back from 3,000 toward just above 2,800 but remains above moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. The message is that broad-based stock market technicals support continued upside, though the presenter reserves concerns about rising rates and credit stress for later materialization.
International indexes show mixed signals; crypto flipping bullish
The Japanese Nikkei is building consolidation after its multi-decade cup pattern, the Footsie 100 broke below support but remains above moving averages and cloud, and the Hang Seng hasn't broken out through key resistance — still can't be bullish on it. The Straits Times (Singapore) looks very bullish but is historically stretched on distance from moving average, warranting a warning. The South Korean KOSPI saw a 44% drawdown at one point but has recovered, with energetic wedge breakouts showing the distance from moving average becoming historically stretched. The Australian ASX is showing signs of possible weakness but holding near support. NASDAQ emerging markets index hit resistance and needs a bullish breakout to confirm continuation. The Nifty 50 (India) is consolidating sideways, below the three-year but above the four-year moving average — tricky and waiting for a signal. On the crypto front, the picture is shifting dramatically. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto total market cap have all broken above their 50-week moving averages and are starting to trend upward through the Ichimoku cloud. Total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum is giving the same signal. Bitcoin is around $80,000-$85,000 and near a critical resistance zone; a close near 85,000 or above would look much more bullish. Ethereum is bouncing off support above the 50-week and trying to get through the cloud. Bitcoin versus NASDAQ is starting to move upside, and altcoins versus Bitcoin are breaking out from consolidation. The presenter is prioritizing a crypto cast over UK analysis next week because crypto is flipping from bearish to potentially very bullish in early stages of a significant breakout.
Banking system warning echoes 2008; watch Bank of America closely
Bank of America versus gold on the quarterly chart has given the presenter serious concern. The chart broke down below moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud, and when you pull back to 2005-2007, you can see Bank of America broke down in the exact same way ahead of the 2008 financial crisis — an early warning. It back-tested that resistance line and was rejected. The presenter is quite strongly of the opinion that something is brewing in the financial sector, particularly banking, that needs very close monitoring and could present serious problems in the next 12 months. The combination of broken Treasury bonds, soaring real yields, plunging high-yield bonds, and this Bank of America technical breakdown creates a multi-indicator warning system. While stock markets remain in meltup mode on technicals, the credit and banking setup is degrading. This is the kind of divergence that has historically preceded shifts in market regimes. The message: follow the technicals, but keep one eye on the rear-view mirror, particularly on how financials and precious metals are positioned relative to equities.