Deep Dive
The Optics Trap: Flattery, Pageantry, and the Absence of Xi
Trump arrived in Beijing to an elaborate red-carpet welcome complete with strategic musical choices like YMCA, theatrics designed to appeal directly to his ego. DW's Richard Walker notes this pageantry touched a nerve with Trump precisely because he loves it — in his Fox News interview with Sean Hannity, Trump interpreted the warm reception as proof the US is now more respected globally under his leadership than under previous presidents. But critics see the flattery differently: it exposes Trump's susceptibility to ceremony over substance. What's striking is what didn't happen. Xi Jinping never appeared at the airport to greet or send off Trump, a deliberate absence that Walker says would be unusual for any leader anyway, but which fits a pattern of calculated restraint. The Chinese side brought its own flattery too — Xi called Trump a great leader, and during opening remarks praised him in ways designed to appeal to Trump's authoritarian instincts, even flattering his MAGA vision by likening it to China's five-year plans. Katherine Klover Ashbrook, a political analyst, identifies Xi as the shrewder diplomatic operator here, noting that while Trump seeks a personal, cozy relationship, Xi has outclassed him through careful calibration of what he offers and doesn't offer.
The CEO Theater: Business Deals Over Geopolitical Progress
Trump brought over a dozen CEOs to Beijing — Tim Cook from Apple, Jensen Huang from Nvidia, Elon Musk (who stole the spotlight with his antics), and others. This mirrors a strategy Angela Merkel used as German chancellor, treating diplomatic visits as business exercises rather than pure geopolitical negotiations. The message it sends is clear: Trump prioritizes trade over confrontation. The headline deal was China's commitment to buy 200 Boeing jets, which Trump celebrated as a major win, but Boeing shares sank afterward when analysts speculated the actual number might be 500, suggesting either the deal was smaller than advertised or Trump inflated it. Trump also claimed victories on soybeans for American farmers, oil purchases from Texas and Louisiana, and new investment vehicles for non-strategic sectors. Yet Walker points out that Trump's own Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hedged on what was actually achieved, saying they'll hear more from Trump on key issues like Taiwan in the coming days. The fundamental tension Walker identifies is whether Trump went to Beijing to build a coherent, strategic relationship or simply to sell airplanes and score quick PR wins. Katherine notes the domestic political pressure driving Trump to accept wins at face value — with a midterm election looming and his credibility tanking, any deal, no matter how shallow, plays as a foreign policy success.
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Sanctions Ignored, Problems Unresolved
Before Trump packed his CEOs off to China, the US State Department issued sanctions on Chinese entities for allegedly providing targeting intelligence to Iran to help them target Americans in the Strait of Hormuz. It's a stunning breach. Yet in Beijing, Trump mentioned Iran only in vague terms — he said both he and Xi oppose Iran having nuclear weapons and want the Strait open for commerce, but nothing concrete emerged. The White House readout claimed China opposes militarization of the strait and expressed interest in buying American oil instead of Iranian oil, but the Chinese side never confirmed any of this. Katherine stresses that no public reassurances came from China that the situation would change, meaning either negotiations are at an impasse or China has little incentive to budge. The real victims are US Asian trading partners who are suffering most from the blockade — energy prices are rising globally, and the disruption flows directly from China's leverage over Iran. Richard notes the asymmetry this reveals: if any other country had supplied targeting intelligence to American adversaries, Trump would respond with fire and fury, but with China, he said nothing. This shows how power has begun to equalize between the superpowers, forcing Trump to swallow actions he'd attack any other nation for committing.
Taiwan: The Conditional Price of Great Power Accommodation
Xi Jinping warned Trump early in the summit that the Taiwan issue must be handled properly, and if it isn't, there could be conflict and their relationship would be in great jeopardy. Katherine reads this as a direct conditional offer: you want accommodation between superpowers, you can have it for the price of Taiwan. The signal is dangerous and Katherine worries Trump hasn't fully absorbed it. What makes Taiwan vulnerable is that Trump asked no substantive questions about it in public, and when aides like Secretary of State Marco Rubio were asked by traveling US media whether policy on Taiwan had changed, Rubio said US policy is unchanged as of today — the qualifying phrase "as of today" left room for future shifts. Rick Glow, DW's Taiwan correspondent, reported that Taiwanese officials breathed a sigh of relief nothing changed during the summit, but cautioned the story isn't over. There's a $14 billion arms package awaiting Trump's approval, the largest ever if approved, which China views as a breach of their supposed understanding. Xi's framing of a three-year strategic stability pact gives him cover to claim Trump violated any agreement if he approves weapons sales or changes diplomatic language on Taiwan — for instance, shifting from not actively supporting independence to actively opposing it. Katherine warns that with Trump facing domestic pressure from his midterms battle, and with competing China hawks and dealmakers pulling him in different directions, he might sacrifice Taiwan later as a bargaining chip if China can deliver something he needs domestically, like peace in the Middle East.
The Tech Trap: AI, Chips, and the Rare Earths Leverage
Beneath the smiles lies a brutal technological competition. AI emerged as a potential dialogue topic between the two sides, with Scott Bessent mentioning they discussed emerging AI models capable of finding software vulnerabilities that could enable mass-scale hacking if proliferated. But nothing concrete came out. More significant is the chip war. The US has imposed export restrictions on Nvidia's most advanced chips to prevent China from building superior AI supercomputers, though Trump actually relaxed some of Biden's restrictions. Rick notes that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, a Taiwanese firm, is the world's biggest producer of the most sophisticated chips, making it a critical node in the US-China-Taiwan triangle. China demonstrated its own leverage with rare earth minerals last year when it imposed export controls on these essential elements used in EVs, batteries, and military applications — some called it the nuclear weapon of trade. The controls shocked both Americans and Europeans, forcing them to scramble for alternative suppliers from Canada, Australia, and elsewhere. Richard explains this shows how power is equalizing: China now wields leverage comparable to decades of US financial sanctions. Apple, represented at the summit by Tim Cook who smiled and said it was wonderful to be back in China, is quietly moving iPhone manufacturing to India and exploring alternative chip suppliers like Samsung and Intel, a hedging strategy that reveals the underlying distrust beneath the diplomatic theatre.
The Stability Trap and the Thucydides Trap: What Comes Next
Xi used the phrase strategic stability repeatedly in describing the summit's outcome, language typically associated with nuclear weapons agreements and the careful management of deterrence. The US never confirmed signing up to this Chinese interpretation, raising questions about what each side actually agreed to. Richard notes Xi is likely claiming an eye-to-eye understanding on matters including Taiwan, and if Trump later takes steps veering away from such an agreement — approving weapons, changing language on Taiwan, imposing more tech restrictions — China will see it as a breach and take counter-actions. Xi also invoked the Thucydides Trap, the ancient Greek concept warning that when a rising power challenges an established hegemon, war becomes likely unless both sides avoid it. Yet Richard observes both sides are simultaneously preparing for potential great-power conflict: China is rapidly expanding its military and nuclear forces, and the US is hardening alliances across Asia. This contradiction — saying we must avoid war while building for war — defines the real dynamic beneath the pageantry. Katherine emphasizes that the next four to six weeks are critical. Trump will either approve that $14 billion Taiwan arms package or scale it back, he'll either maintain tech export controls or loosen them, and his statements on Taiwan's status will either affirm previous policy or shift it. The September summit between Trump and Xi will reveal who won the battle for Trump's ear — the China hawks pushing confrontation or the dealmakers seeking accommodation. Until then, the visitor question hangs unresolved: who actually won Beijing?