Deep Dive
The S&P's Historic Melt-Up
The market has entered unprecedented territory. The S&P 500 is up roughly 25% since October with essentially no pullbacks, just straight up. This entire move is being driven by AI narrative dominance — AI is the macro story, everything else is noise. There was one tiny dip back in late March around the 23rd that briefly touched below the 200-day moving average, and another small tariff-related pullback in late March/early April 2025, but since then it's been relentless. The QQQ tells an even more extreme story: tech-heavy indices are accelerating faster than the broad market because they capture the AI revolution more directly. However, the QQQ is showing double sell signals on both ATR and confluence backtesting models, which historically would be a major warning sign. Yet the index keeps making new all-time highs anyway. This disconnect suggests we may be in genuinely unprecedented territory where historical models break down.
Bitcoin and Crypto Divergence
Bitcoin is struggling while everything AI explodes. The price sits at $81,323, below the 200-day moving average which currently sits at $81,323 and keeps resetting lower as price stays depressed. The top-and-bottom indicator has reverted to deep blue — a kill zone historically seen in January 2023. The optimized trend turned orange after 6 weeks of blue strength, signaling weakening momentum. InvestAnswers sees a buy signal at $64K but doesn't expect the often-hoped-for $40K crash. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is more interesting: it shows when Bitcoin is winning versus gold in real terms. Around 14-15 ounces per Bitcoin currently, it could retest 33-40 ounces, with the all-time high being 41 ounces. Ethereum is even worse, sitting way under its 200-day moving average with a sell signal and trend down. Tom Lee buying is apparently the only thing keeping it from $1,200-$1,400 territory. Meanwhile, Solana has been decisively outperforming Ethereum since May 4th due to positive ETF flows into SOL and negative flows into ETH — suggesting institutional traders are rotating into the better-performing chain.
AI Semiconductor Euphoria
Nvidia's earnings just dropped with record quarterly revenue of $81.6B, beating expectations. After-hours it was up $2.50 before settling. The real story: $80 billion share buyback and dividend increase from $0.01 to $0.25. This matters enormously because Nvidia is the grandfather of the AI narrative — if it falters, downstream AI stocks crater hard. The stock itself is in a strong uptrend on the daily, Jensen Huang is extremely bullish, and it must be owned for AI exposure. But Nvidia's outperformance is tiny compared to its ecosystem plays. ALAB is the beast: up 204% YTD, tripled from $100 in April to $290 in six weeks, with an analyst upgrade yesterday to $290 based on its Scorpion X technology that integrates into 90% of datacenter machinery — the ultimate pick-and-shovel play. Micron is volatile but works: hit $830, sold off to $677, now bouncing back to $750. The 12-hour trend turned down May 18th with double sell signals, but it's showing classic mean reversion volatility that rewards dip-buying. Marvel has been in an unbroken uptrend since March 5, 2026, rising from $79 to $188 in just over a year — up 200%+, making dips nearly impossible to find. AMD is perhaps the wildest: up 300% YTD with a massive mean reversion wave, briefly hitting near $450, falling to $409, but then the next day hitting $391 and rocketing back to $447 in single day swings. The optimized trend is still very much up.
Infrastructure Plays and Proxies
Broadcom shows double sell signals and huge mean reversion coming after an extended run — expect this one to take a breather. InvestAnswers called a sell signal at $430 last week; it's now $413, proving mean reversion is working. For SpaceX exposure without direct access, Echoar is the proxy holding 2.8% of SpaceX. Using crude math: Echoar's market cap is $41B; calculate 2.8% of a hypothetical $2 trillion SpaceX valuation and you get the implicit value. Echoar itself hit new all-time highs and was volatile — he hedged early at $132, had to cover $2 higher because it kept running, then it fell the next day. Beautiful double bottom at $117 before rocketing to $141. People will buy this through June 12th, SpaceX's IPO date. The numbers on SpaceX are extraordinary: Cursor (an xAI product) went from a couple million in revenue to $2 billion in under a year and is now on par with Anthropic's model per benchmarks, but cheaper. XAI has an option to buy Cursor for $60B at year-end. If Cursor is worth $1.2 trillion (Anthropic's valuation), and SpaceX IPO is $2 trillion, that implies SpaceX's space component alone is worth $800B — potentially much higher.
Trading Setups and Risk Management
InvestAnswers uses data science models across multiple timeframes. For volatile runners like ALAB, he doesn't chase at current parabolic levels around $287. Instead, he sets buy traps: start nibbling at $162, another level at $200. Don't buy overstretched; set alerts and wait for mean reversion to come back down. Tesla is stuck between level five ($380) and level six (all-time high $499). He called three-to-six-month move back to all-time high on the show, blaming robot-taxi rollout delays for stalling the stock. But operations deployment in Florida, Nevada, Texas aren't slowing; they're just not pumping headline numbers. Elon said most of the US will be littered with Cybercabs by year-end. Palantir: when the double yellow line (killbox) gets pierced, $128-$130 is a good risk-reward buy. May want to hedge around $158-$160. Copper: only semi-precious metal he owns apart from Bitcoin. Rejected off all-time highs around new record levels, fell to $620, now moving back up. Use leap options for powerful returns. Watch for big dips below $620 (the green support line); the 200-day moving average is around $550. ISRG (Intuitive Surgical): medical device play that got beaten down to $414-$415 but he bought and is now back in green. This was a mean reversion play at support; financials are strong, growth story intact.