Deep Dive
Trump halts the naval escort operation
Trump announced via Truth Social that Project Freedom—the US-led operation to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz—would be paused indefinitely. The move came roughly 36 hours after Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared the US-Israeli military operation against Iran (Operation Epic Fury) complete. Trump claimed the pause was necessary to allow time for negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, suggesting meaningful progress toward a deal. Rubio had spent 50 minutes fielding media questions, emphasizing that the US military objectives in Iran had been achieved, but Trump's sudden pivot suggested the diplomatic track had become the priority. The decision caught observers off guard, as Project Freedom had been framed as a critical defensive measure to keep global shipping lanes open.
China positions itself as mediator
Iran's foreign minister traveled to Beijing for face-to-face talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, a move analysts attribute to China's desire to demonstrate peacemaking efforts ahead of Trump's visit next week. China is walking a diplomatic tightrope: it considers itself an ally of Iran but has $150,000 Chinese citizens in the UAE and critical energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz that the blockade is threatening. Rubio publicly called for China to pressure Iran, framing the strait closures as economic hostage-taking that harms everyone. However, Stephen McDonald, BBC's China correspondent, noted that Beijing views both the US and Israel as culpable for starting the conflict and will frame its role as neutral arbitration rather than taking sides. Crucially, China is instructing its companies to continue buying Iranian oil despite US sanctions—a signal that Beijing is keeping leverage for the Trump-Xi talks.
Expert analysis on nuclear negotiations and China's role
Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford, assessed that China will likely pressure Iran to reopen the strait and halt attacks on the UAE, which hosts significant Chinese economic interests. He suggested Iran's anxiety centers on the possibility that China might strike a separate deal with Trump during his Beijing visit, cutting Iran out entirely. However, Milani argued that China's position is genuinely comfortable: it has extensive contacts with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other Persian Gulf states, meaning it can negotiate with all sides simultaneously. On the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal, Milani expressed confidence that both sides want one badly enough that a framework is achievable, with each side prepared to claim victory by selectively highlighting concessions the other side made. He acknowledged accusations that China is providing military intelligence to Iran but stopped short of confirming the claim, instead noting that minimal support is the bare minimum expected between longtime allies.