InvestAnswers
InvestAnswersSep 2
Finance

Don't Trade September Until You See THESE Charts 📉🔥

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TL;DR

September is historically the worst month for stocks, but the creator sees it as a buying opportunity before Q4 rallies; Bitcoin's bear market lasted 123 days shorter than the last one and could be entering a 3-year bull phase.

Key Insights

1

304 vs 427 days — Bitcoin's current bear market lasted 304 days versus 427 days in 2021-2022—123 days shorter and less steep, with the monthly trend now blue, which historically precedes 3-year bull runs.

2

1B = 3% price — Every $1 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs adds approximately 3% to the price, making ETF inflows the primary driver of near-term direction.

3

48.44% drop needed — Bitcoin would need to drop 48.44% to reach $40,000 in the next 8 weeks—odds are 99.5% against this happening, making it a lottery ticket bet.

4

1B+ daily revenue — Nvidia is making over $1 billion per day in revenue and projected to grow 70% year-over-year, hitting $1.7-2 billion daily revenue—currently at $224 versus all-time high of $236.

5

40% August rally — Solana had 9-12 monthly red candles in a row from 2023-2026 but rallied 40% in August alone, breaking above the 200-day moving average after a brutal winter.

6

Cybertruck launch week — Tesla's Cybertruck autonomous fleet launch happens this week, while Waymo deployed 250 robotaxis in Texas and Uber cut 10% of staff for robotaxi investing—creator expects Tesla to dominate within 6-12 months.

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Deep Dive

The September Curse and Q4 Opportunity

The creator opens by warning that September is historically the worst month for equities, both in the US and globally. He's been flagging this for five to six weeks. However, he frames September not as a time to short but as a hunting season for positions to hold through Q4, when markets and earnings typically perform best. Companies report their strongest numbers in Q4, and the last quarter of the year tends to generate substantial gains. By December, he cleans out his portfolio of underperformers before year-end. The key insight: fear in September creates opportunities for disciplined buyers. The volatility index has been quiet all summer, staying subdued, which is typical seasonal behavior before inevitable spikes.

Bitcoin's Shorter Bear Market Signals Extended Bull Run

The creator analyzes Bitcoin's monthly chart using a custom trend model called optimized trend, configured by historical volatility and Sortino ratios. The previous bear market from October 2021 to December 2022 lasted 427 days. The current one, which started around October 2023, ended just days ago at 304 days—123 days shorter and significantly less steep. Critically, Bitcoin's monthly trend has now turned blue, historically preceding 3-year uptrend periods. The creator measured the last blue uptrend at 973 days (nearly 3 years), suggesting we could be at the very beginning of another multi-year bull run. He directly addresses the bearish camp expecting Bitcoin to crash to $40,000, noting this would require a 48.44% decline in the next 8 weeks—odds he pegs at 99.5% against. Bitcoin currently sits around $78,000, with resistance at $80,000 and potential support in the $74-75,000 range.

ETF Inflows Drive Crypto Action; Altcoins Show Recovery

The creator emphasizes that Bitcoin ETF inflows are the primary driver of price movement, with every $1 billion flowing in adding roughly 3% to the price. He notes Bitcoin ETFs have resumed buying and sellers are backing down, a positive sign. Solana, despite a brutal 2025-2026 winter with 9-12 consecutive monthly red candles, exploded 40% in August and has broken above its 200-day moving average with resistance around $112-113. Ethereum is tracking similarly, taking a breather at resistance level three on the ATR model. The total crypto market cap shows no major red flags. The creator's thesis: September hesitation and November confidence mean September dips create October entry points. He advises watching for the typical 10-day September correction, after which the market historically rips higher.

AI and Semiconductor Heavyweights Approach All-Time Highs

Nvidia reported stunning earnings, making over $1 billion daily in revenue with projected 70% growth year-over-year, potentially reaching $1.7-2 billion per day next year. The stock trades at $224, near its all-time high of $236, and the creator expects it to chunder along in an uptrend channel. Google, meanwhile, sits with a bearish setup and a kill box at $320 (only $13 away), though the creator still sees long-term bullish fundamentals. AMD, trading near level five at the bottom of its range, remains bullish despite going nowhere in a week—the creator calls it mini-Nvidia for custom chips. Marvell sold off after missing on earnings expectations but is holding at level four support around $206, stopping further decline. These names represent the core AI infrastructure play, and despite short-term chop, the creator maintains conviction in their 3-5 year trajectories.

Tesla, MicroStrategy, and the Robotaxi Wild Card

Tesla is executing something historic this week: the Cybertruck autonomous fleet launch at 2 p.m. Pacific time, marking the first-ever live dedicated vehicle fleet launch. The creator also notes that Uber just cut 10% of staff to fund robotaxi development, and Waymo deployed 250 more robotaxis in Texas. The creator believes Tesla will push both out of August within 6-12 months due to competitive advantages. Tesla issued a sell signal and is mean-reverting slightly, with support and resistance defining a trading channel toward $350-380. MicroStrategy exploded 53% in just 12 days but is now mean-reverting like Bitcoin. The creator bought IBIT leaps in February around $36-38 when Bitcoin hit $64,000, perped Solana around $64-68, and took MicroStrategy leaps in the $90s. MicroStrategy trades around $97 with a 12.33% dividend yield and 4 years of banked dividends, offering risk-free dividend with upside optionality. The creator still sees no sell signal despite current pullback.

Takeaways

  • âś“Don't fight the September trend—instead, use weakness in the first 10 days to build positions for Q4's seasonal strength in earnings and price action.
  • âś“Bitcoin's shorter bear market and blue monthly trend suggest a potential 3-year bull run ahead; waiting for $40,000 is a 99.5% odds-against bet requiring a 48.44% crash in 8 weeks.
  • âś“Track Bitcoin ETF flows closely—every $1 billion inflow adds roughly 3% to price, making institutional demand the primary driver over the next 6-12 months.
  • âś“Focus on tier-0.3% winners in each category (Nvidia in chips, Bitcoin in crypto, SpaceX in space) rather than speculating on 10th-best alternatives; diversify only within clear leaders.

Key moments

4:04Bitcoin bear market was 123 days shorter

“The last bear market lasted 427 days. The current one...ended just a few days ago. It was only 304 days. So not only is it 123 days shorter, but it's also less steep.”

6:23Bitcoin needs 48% drop to hit $40K

“To get to 40 grand on Bitcoin, we need the price to drop...48.44%. I can tell you my friends, with a 99.5% certainty, it's not going to fall 50% in the next 8 weeks.”

8:30Every billion in Bitcoin ETF flows adds 3%

“Remember, every billion dollars that goes into the ETFs adds 3% to the price. So, we just have to watch this carefully.”

16:32Nvidia making over 1 billion per day

“Nvidia...earnings were incredible. They're making over a billion dollars a day in revenue. And they are going to grow by 70% this time next year.”

15:00Solana rallied 40% in August alone

“Solana went up 40% in August. But when you look back at the last 2026, it's just kind of been sucky.”

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