InvestAnswers
InvestAnswersAug 4
Finance

Follow the Money, follow the Flow, follow the Signals Flashing đŸ”„đŸ“ˆ

31 min video5 key momentsWatch original
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TL;DR

Bitcoin sits in a historical accumulation zone with multiple technical metrics flashing buy signals; AI capex spending is exceeding $1 trillion annually, driving massive outperformance in chip and infrastructure stocks.

Key Insights

1

Killbox buy signals converge — Three separate technical metrics (Satoshi Meter, Porcupolis Power Law, Omega Score) all confirm Bitcoin is in the killbox—the 3rd percentile historically accurate zone where you should deploy capital aggressively.

2

70 million FSD miles daily — Tesla's FSD accumulated 1 billion miles in 16 days, down from 33 days previously, now running at 70 million miles daily—equivalent to preventing 1.1 lives lost and 200 serious car crashes per day.

3

$1 trillion AI capex — AI infrastructure capex is projected to exceed $1.019 trillion in 2024, up from initial January estimates of $750-800 billion, with Google ($200B), Amazon ($150B), Microsoft ($130B), and Meta ($120B) leading.

4

Open source crushing closed source — DeepSeek open-source model outperforms Anthropic's Claude on Terminal Bench 2.1 at a fraction of the cost ($28 vs $50 per 1M tokens), and SpaceX's Grok ranks first for speed and cost efficiency combined.

5

ISM PMI correlation unbroken — ISM PMI manufacturing strength has the strongest correlation to Bitcoin of any metric over the past two years—if Bitcoin falls below 60K with PMI booming, that correlation should be discarded entirely.

6

6.2% GDP growth ahead — Atlanta Fed projects Q3 2026 US GDP growth at 6.2%, signaling the beginning of potential 10%+ annual growth Elon Musk predicted, all driven by AI and capex deployment.

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Deep Dive

Bitcoin bottoming signals converge

InvestAnswers walks through three separate on-chain and technical metrics all pointing to the same conclusion: Bitcoin is in a historical accumulation zone. The Satoshi Meter, created by James Eaton, shows a score of 2.52, described as deep in the accumulation zone where the metric has been extremely accurate at finding bottoms. The Porcupolis Power Law Quantile Regression places Bitcoin at the 3rd percentile—the killbox, as InvestAnswers calls it, where you deploy capital aggressively without hesitation. The Omega Score confirms this yet again, sitting in the historical blue zone (0-20 range) indicating extreme fear and undervaluation. What's significant is that Bitcoin has been holding above 60K for months despite macro chaos including war threats and interest rate concerns, suggesting institutional hands are steady. The challenge now is generating upside momentum—InvestAnswers says Bitcoin needs something like a Starship's 33 Raptor engines to lift off, and that requires new money flowing in from treasuries, ETFs, and retail.

ISM PMI and the money flow correlation

InvestAnswers emphasizes that ISM PMI manufacturing data is the last meaningful correlation Bitcoin has to macro conditions; every other correlation has failed over the past two years. PMI is spiking sharply right now because manufacturing is booming—driven entirely by AI capex and data center buildouts. Forty percent of US GDP is currently driven by AI. The Atlanta Fed is forecasting Q3 2026 GDP growth at a staggering 6.2%, which aligns with Elon Musk's earlier prediction of 10%+ annual GDP growth. InvestAnswers makes a strong claim: if Bitcoin falls below 60K while PMI remains elevated over the next 60 days, that correlation is dead forever and should be abandoned. The logic is straightforward—when there's more money sloshing through the system and more debasement occurring, hard assets rally. S&P 500 earnings are surging because companies are leveraging AI. This creates a convergence where AI and crypto are the only two theses that matter.

AI stocks and capex deployment

The equity market's rebound from July's crash was extraordinary. After one of the worst Julies for tech stocks ever, Microsoft surged 26.25% in a week, Amazon 19%, Google 16%, and Palantir up 30%—which InvestAnswers had recommended buying at $106 as a three-way bet. Palantir and other AI infrastructure plays are moving fast because capex is flowing. InvestAnswers has been tracking AI infrastructure spending obsessively for 36 years in finance and says it's never been this predictable. Google alone is spending roughly $200 billion annually, Amazon $150 billion, Microsoft $130 billion, Meta $120 billion, and SpaceX $30 billion. These figures add up to over $1.019 trillion, up from earlier 2024 estimates of $750-800 billion. This capex trickles down into suppliers like ASML, Marvell, AMD, and Nvidia. Bank of America is projecting AMD has 30% upside to $689 per share. The message is clear: follow the money, put yourself in position, and let it play out.

Tesla FSD and Starlink dominance

Tesla is accumulating FSD (Full Self-Driving) data at an accelerating pace. The last billion miles took 33-34 days; the jump from 12 billion to 13 billion miles took only 16 days. Tesla is now collecting 70 million FSD-driven miles daily. InvestAnswers calculates this saves approximately 1.1 lives per day and prevents 80 injuries and 200 serious car crashes daily—making it genuine life-saving technology. You don't hear about FSD deaths in mainstream media because they're not happening at scale; the system is working. Meanwhile, SpaceX's Starlink is crushing legacy competitors like Viasat and Viasat's CEO dismissed Starlink's economics six years ago—now Viasat is defunct. InvestAnswers personally uses Starlink as a backup internet connection and has deployed it twice in two weeks. SpaceX earnings came in strong: revenue up 92% year-over-year, EBITDA up 191% to $3.5 billion, and net income of $541 million versus expectations of minus $2 billion. The stock sold off in after-hours despite the beat (classic buy the rumor, sell the news), but InvestAnswers sees significant unlock potential ahead. Optimus humanoid robots are coming and not yet priced in by Wall Street.

Open source AI challenging closed source dominance

A critical narrative shift is unfolding in AI: open-source models are outperforming closed-source offerings at a fraction of the cost. DeepSeek version 4 Flash scores 82.7 on Terminal Bench 2.1, beating Anthropic's Claude 5 which scores lower. The pricing differential is staggering: $28 per million tokens for DeepSeek versus $50 for Claude. If you need a million tokens, the choice is obvious—better quality at half the price. InvestAnswers claims he's never seen such a discrepancy between price and product quality in his career. When examining pareto efficiency (best, cheapest, fastest), SpaceX's Grok ranks number one overall—it's the fastest and cheapest model on the benchmarks. This dynamic is reshaping the AI landscape and means hyperscalers still can't get enough compute despite billions in capex. Google, Anthropic, and Reflection are all buying compute from Elon Musk's SpaceX infrastructure because AWS can't supply enough.

Takeaways

  • ✓Bitcoin sits at historical accumulation zone—deploy aggressively in tranches if ISM PMI remains elevated; abort the correlation forever if BTC falls below 60K over the next 60 days while PMI booms.
  • ✓Follow AI capex spending ($1+ trillion annually), not sentiment—it flows into ASML, AMD, Marvell, and Nvidia; ignore Wall Street bears calling it a bubble.
  • ✓Stock picks: AMD to $689 (BofA), Palantir rebounding from $106 dip, Tesla with 70M daily FSD miles and Starlink dominance, SpaceX with 92% revenue growth.
  • ✓Open-source models are eating closed-source lunch—monitor DeepSeek and Grok performance vs. Claude; the pricing delta ($28 vs $50) will compress margins for Anthropic.

Key moments

0:42Burning building mentality

“July we had some good times and I know people are very upset in July but it was a great time to stack lots of things really really cheap”

5:42ISM PMI correlation unbroken

“Will Bitcoin follow PMI? It usually does within 60 days. PMI has just gone bonkers, exploded higher. Bitcoin should follow too. If Bitcoin falls below 60K with PMI doing what it does here over the next 60 days, that's it. You can throw away this correlation forever”

20:00AI capex exceeds trillion

“Google maybe 200 billion, Amazon 150 billion, Microsoft 130 billion, Meta 120 billion, SpaceX 30 billion. And this capex will exceed 1 trillion dollars”

22:00Tesla FSD acceleration

“It just did from 12 billion to 13 billion in just 16 days. It's now running at 70 million miles a day. That's a saving I calculated 1.1 life a day and 80 injuries a day and about 200 car crashes”

27:00Open source crushing closed

“DeepSeek version 4 Flash outperforms Fable 5 scoring 82.7. The open source is killing what's supposedly the magic bullet for AI. And this is the crazy part. It's way cheaper”

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