Deep Dive
The Whiplash Recovery: FOMO or Fundamentals?
InvestAnswers opens with a striking admission: last week he called the selloff overblown, and he was right. July saw one of the worst months ever for AI stocks, but 70-75 percent of the damage reversed within two days. The VIX peaked at 20.66 on July 29th — exactly one week prior — and that peak marked the exact bottom. He notes that for VIX traders, it was a textbook signal. Today brought a weird intraday spike to 208 on the VIX chart for no obvious reason, one of those market anomalies that happen. The key takeaway: these markets are violent but increasingly predictable thanks to modern models. For traders, he says, this is glorious — the kind of environment where consistent edge wins consistently.
QQQ and S&P 500: The Technical Bottom Held
The QQQ nearly touched its 200-day moving average at 662 within an hour before ripping back to 720. It now sits at 722 — proof that mechanical support levels still work in chaotic markets. He admits he was premature picking the May top, calling the May-to-July period a double top followed by a big tank driven by open-source model talk and Leopold drama. But the bottom was unmistakable. The S&P 500 keeps breaking new all-time highs on the hourly chart, stepping up in stairs, consolidating sideways for weeks, then breaking higher again. He dismisses bear narratives about a 1987-style crash, pointing out the S&P 500 trades at a PE of 20 — as cheap as it ever gets. Money is chasing too few hard assets, he argues. Perma bears missed the AI train and resent it. The narrative is simple: AI is changing everything, valuations are reasonable, and the old playbook doesn't apply.
Crypto: Bitcoin Stuck, ETH Ready to Explode
Bitcoin sits at 64K, unchanged since February — a level he calls the 42K of the last cycle but higher, which is good. The buy signal is active, trend is up, and there's very strong support at 59K. He expected 62-65K chopping until ETF or Michael Saylor buying pushes it higher. The flywheel is broken for now because Saylor has been selling MSTR stock into strength since July 2nd to raise cash, keeping the stock flat while Bitcoin recovered. ETH hit a beautiful 1500 kill-box double buy signal and is creeping up, now only 8 percent away from the 200-day moving average at 2085. Once ETH breaks above that level, it tends to stay there and could rocket to 3000-5000. He still doesn't understand ETH valuations but notes Solana has 10,000 users and does 1,000 times the transactions — proof that markets are illogical. Solana itself is underperforming; he's bored with it, bought a little at 64, but there's no catalyst. The 200-day MA keeps dropping because price stays low.
Mega-Cap Tech: Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and the Google-Microsoft Debate
Nvidia recovered massively, up 3.43 percent today alone — a huge move for a five-trillion-dollar company. It trades at an all-time low PE ratio and has never been cheaper. Elon just announced SpaceX will buy Nvidia chips exclusively for all compute until their own FI and FA6 chips arrive in coming years; this is huge demand on top of existing AI infrastructure spend. AMD tanked through 480 to 420 last week, then shot back up with the recovery; it's a mini-Nvidia with similar upside. Broadcom had a clear sell signal at 430, tanked to 350, and bounced with a fresh buy signal today — strong candles indicate it's breaking out of its trading range back toward 500. The CapEx spend for AI is accelerating, not slowing. He pivots to Google vs. Microsoft: Microsoft had good earnings, but Google is the better value. Google has faster growth, GCP growing faster than Azure, better PE, TPUs, search, YouTube. Microsoft is fairly valued; Google should trade at 450. Over the past year, Google outperformed Microsoft by over 100 percent. Demis Hassabis moving to a bigger role at Google rattled the market — rumors of departing AI researchers — but it's a non-event. He expects Google to keep smoking Microsoft.
AI Plays, Copper Surge, and Crypto Alternatives
Micron crashed to the 739 kill zone he identified six days prior, then bounced near 70-72. July was rough, but stacking Micron, Marvell, Palantir, and other names was smart. Marvell surged 36.7 percent in two days and is now taking a breather at 210; the kill zone at 164 is excellent for new positions. This thing is going to 1,000 in coming years. Palantir trades in a weird range since February, and all his models — trend, mean reversion, confluence, ATR — say it will sell off after earnings, as it has done repeatedly. The 200-day MA is pointing down. He expects weakness below 152 soon; taking profits from 106-to-160 gains is smart. Copper just smashed a new all-time high at 68,278 in five consecutive up days — a stunning move he didn't expect within a week. He holds leaps on copper because AI infrastructure and electrification will drive huge copper demand. On crypto alternatives, Solana is still the dominant L1 with 3.5M daily active users, dominates transaction volume, and has the broadest dApp ecosystem. Sui and Sei have much smaller user bases. Avalanche is garbage. He's not chasing Bittensor tokenomics or Hyperliquid moats that could flip to other chains. The DeFi space is dead while everyone chases AI, but once Bitcoin momentum returns, it'll trickle to Ethereum, then other L1s, then dApps like Jupiter.