InvestAnswers
InvestAnswersSep 21
Tech

Called $90K Bitcoin for October… We Just Hit $87K in 2 Weeks 📈

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TL;DR

Bitcoin hit $87K in just two weeks after hitting $82K resistance, smashing through the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks — a historically bullish signal that traditionally precedes explosive rallies.

Key Insights

1

ETFs changed the game — The current bear market lasted only 252 days and dropped just 51% — versus the 2018 crash which lasted 378 days and fell 77%. ETF inflows have fundamentally shortened and shallowed bear cycles.

2

Supply just evaporated — Long-term Bitcoin holders have nearly stopped selling — volume dropped from 105,000 BTC per month to 21,000 BTC. With ETFs buying and hodlers stopped dumping, there's very little supply available at current prices.

3

$82K was the keystone — Breaking above the $82K level triggered an immediate run to $87K because $82K has massive historical significance as both support and resistance. Once broken as support, it became a magnet resistance that got destroyed.

4

Top 11 now, silver next — Bitcoin entered the top 11 global assets by market cap at $1.724 trillion. Flipping silver (worth $3.759 trillion) would require Bitcoin at approximately $170K-$175K.

5

45-week drought broken — Friday's ETF inflows exceeded $400 million and marked the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average in 45 weeks — a 1-year signal historically followed by sustained rallies.

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Deep Dive

The $82K Breakout Was the Trigger

Two weeks prior, the host made a bold call for $90K in October while critics screamed the market was headed to $40K-$50K. Bitcoin sat at $60K then. Now at $87K — just $2.7K away from the target — the move happened because the market broke above $82K, which had served as historical support. Once support breaks, it converts to resistance, and breaking through it opens the floodgates. The path was marked weeks in advance on technical charts. The $82K level wasn't arbitrary — it had tested multiple times before finally cracking. When it did, the move to $87K followed almost immediately, with only a minor dip to $75K-$76K midweek that got reclaimed fast. The bears got flushed but the bulls got full retracement, meaning sellers dried up quickly.

ETF Money Flows Are Driving Everything

The host argues you can explain roughly 80% of Bitcoin returns just by tracking ETF flows. Friday saw a massive $400 million day, and while that settled within 24 hours, Monday may bring another $400M-$500M influx as Tradfi players experience FOMO. The psychological shift is huge: Bitcoin accumulation restarted August 17th after a brutal four-month dump, and since then green candles vastly outnumber red ones. What matters most is that long-term holders have virtually stopped selling — their monthly dump fell from 105,000 BTC to 21,000 BTC. With ETFs accumulating and hodlers stopped dumping, supply is evaporating. Retail investors who sat on the sidelines now chase, adding fuel. The math is simple: fewer coins available to buy plus institutional money pouring in equals rapid price appreciation.

The 50-Week Moving Average Just Broke — A Year of Supply Pressure Lifts

Friday marked the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average in 45 weeks — essentially a full year of price trading below it. This is not just another technical level; historically every time Bitcoin price crosses the 50-week MA, it rockets. The pattern repeats across four previous bull markets shown on Galaxy's chart. The 50-week MA is a 365-day moving average that acts as gravity on price — price stayed above it for three years during the 2017 bull run, then crashed through it, spending 250-300 days in the bear market before breaking back above. This cycle, Bitcoin went through it with extreme aggression, not tapping resistance a few times but blasting straight through. Charts from Galaxy and Brett Macro show that when this happens historically, Bitcoin enters a sustained uptrend. The host and formerly-bearish analyst Axel now agree: formal transition from bear to bull regime should happen as early as next week.

Conservative Targets Are Already Too Low

Months ago, bull targets looked conservative: $120K-$129K seemed ambitious when Bitcoin was at $64K. But given the speed and magnitude of the recent move, $140K looks like a lock. Axel, who just flipped bullish, targets $140K. The host called $130K his sandbag target earlier in the year. However, if you replicate the last cycle proportionally, targets get wild: $500K in the base case, $950K-$960K in a higher scenario, and $3 million in an extreme one. Obviously none will hit, but the framework shows outsized upside is possible. Bitcoin also just hit number 11 in global asset rankings at $1.724 trillion market cap. If it flips silver ($3.759 trillion), Bitcoin would be priced around $170K-$175K. These aren't predictions but rather mathematical targets that show the runway is substantial if institutional adoption accelerates further.

Miners May Have Found a New Revenue Model, Removing Selling Pressure

One underappreciated factor: Bitcoin miners traditionally had to sell coins to pay electric bills, creating constant supply pressure. But recently miners have begun selling electricity to AI compute operations, which have higher margins. If this theory holds true, miners no longer need to dump their Bitcoin bags to cover costs. This removes a historically significant supply headwind. The host plans to track miner behavior via on-chain analytics to verify this shift. If miners stop forced selling while ETFs accumulate and long-term holders hodl, price acceleration could surprise even bulls. This structural change — miners becoming infrastructure providers rather than sellers — hasn't been widely discussed but could be another reason why the move from $68K to $87K happened in just two weeks.

Takeaways

  • ✓Watch Bitcoin ETF flows daily — they correlate 80% to price. If today brings $400M-$500M inflows on a Monday, acceleration to $90K happens fast. Check them tomorrow.
  • ✓The 50-week MA break is now the most watched level in crypto. When price stays above it, historical patterns say sustained rallies follow. Don't panic-sell on minor dips below it.
  • ✓If Bitcoin flips silver at $3.759 trillion market cap, the target is $170K-$175K. It costs nothing to know what this level means.
  • ✓Never post your Bitcoin holdings or seed phrase on social media or car plates. The Bitcoin price surge will attract wrench attacks. Protect operational security.

Key moments

1:27The call that aged well

“Exactly two weeks ago I made a video... I basically slammed my face on a table saying 90k is next and we're going to hit 90k in October... Well here we are, we're literally $2,700 away from 90k.”

5:0050-week MA is a flawless indicator

“The 50WE smashed. And coincidentally the 50WE here is a green line. It's almost in line within 2 or 3 days of these things happening. So I found that very interesting as well.”

9:00Long-term holders stopped selling

“Long-term holders have basically stopped. They've slowed their selling down by fivefold... that fell to 21,000. So if you have ETFs and treasury companies all buying Bitcoin and the long-term holders aren't selling... there's very little coin available to buy.”

15:00Bearish analyst just flipped bullish

“Axel came to a conclusion today in his paper. He said here we are the formal transition should come as early as next week. That is the transition from bare market regime to bull market regime. Axel has flipped bullish.”

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